Violence, Rioting After The Election? It Could Happen

The Commerce Department reported this morning that 3Q Gross Domestic Product rose at an annual rate of 33.1%, right in-line with expectations. I’ll have more GDP analysis in Forecasts & Trends on Tuesday. Before we get into our main topic today, let me quickly recap where we stand on the presidential race.

With five days to go until November 3, the news cycle is nonstop election, election, election in the mainstream media. They are hellbent on assuring voters of all stripes that Joe Biden will win on Tuesday and become our next President on January 20.

As of today, the RealClearPolitics.com average of the eight presidential polls it tracks has Biden at 51.3% and Trump at 43.6%, a spread of 7.7 which has been narrowing in recent days. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com now predicts Biden has a 93% chance of winning; never mind he had Hillary winning in a landslide in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Trafalgar Group, which is known for finding “shy” voters who won’t tell pollsters who they’re going to vote for, still has it a margin of error race, with a slight edge to Trump. And here’s a new development: Susquehanna Polling and Research based in Harrisburg, PA now also predicts a Trump victory, based on its reading of “shy” voters. Also, Rasmussen had Trump pulling ahead, finally, by the thinnest margin of 48%-47%.

So, who knows what will happen next week? I certainly don’t. What I do know is it is very unlikely we’ll know the winner Tuesday night. It could take days or even weeks, especially if it’s a tight finish. Trump is narrowing the gap in some of the mainstream polls, but time is running out. It will all come down to how many shy Trump voters are out there.

What we do know is voter turnout is likely to be record large this time. As of Tuesday, more than 64 million Americans had already voted – and about half of them are in so-called “swing states” which will ultimately decide who wins the Electoral College and thus the White House.

Warnings of Election-Related Armed Violence

The troubling question is whether we’ll see violence and rioting next week. A new study released last week warned that at least five states are at high risk of experiencing election-related armed violence from militia groups.

A joint report released on October 21 by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and MilitiaWatch determined Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Oregon to be at high risk for increased militia activity leading up to and following the election. USA Today reported this morning that 3 out of 4 Americans polled are worried about violence surrounding the election. Wow!

ACLED and MilitiaWatch caution in the report that the militias may be active in state capitals, peripheral towns, medium-population cities and suburban areas with centralized zones. The joint report also said North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, California and New Mexico are at moderate risk to experience active militias. The report warned:

“Militia groups and other armed non-state actors pose a serious threat to the safety and security of American voters. Throughout the summer and leading up to the general election, these groups have become more assertive, with activities ranging from intervening in protests to organizing kidnapping plots targeting elected officials.”

They write that the militia groups train for urban and rural combat, use propaganda and pose as “security operations” for online and in-person events.

The report names nine militia groups as the “most active” in the US which could take action leading up to or after the election, including Three Percenters, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Light Foot Militia, Civilian Defense Force, American Contingency, Patriot Prayer, Boogaloo Bois and People’s Rights.  The threat is very real, the report warns.

The question is, which election outcome would most likely spark serious violence? This question is harder to answer than you might think. Most people would probably think the most likely outcome for violence would be if President Trump is re-elected. And that may well be true.

Yet it’s also true some extremist groups like The Oath Keepers and the conspiracy movement QAnon have both suggested they might resort to violence if Trump loses the election.

Unclear or contested election results could fuel a range of agitators, on both the left and the right, and perpetuate the cycle of reciprocal radicalization – where each side sees the other as an existential threat, and mobilizes accordingly.

And let’s not forget: Gun and ammunition sales hit record highs this year. According to the FBI background checks, handgun purchases are up an astonishing 80% from last year. One might have to go back to the late 1960s to find a time when US domestic politics resembled such a powder keg.

Let’s hope and pray none of this happens, but things could turn violent whichever way the election goes. That’s why police and law enforcement around the country are trying to redouble their efforts against violent extremists. The National Guard is also on high alert.

Parting thought: President Trump will have to work with law enforcement and state and local officials whether he wins or loses the election.