I must tell you it was SO tempting to write about politics today since there is so much interesting stuff going on – with the recounting of vote totals in several states and Trump’s lawsuits challenging election results and voting procedures.
Yet it occurred to me yesterday that many Americans, including some of you I would guess, are probably tired of hearing about the election. Maybe not, maybe many of you would prefer to hear my thoughts on the most interesting aspects of this very unusual election, which is far from over. In any event, there will be plenty of time for me to share such thoughts with you in the weeks just ahead.
In the meantime, there was some really exciting news on the COVID front this week which I can elaborate on today. Let’s give that a try for a change of pace today. Here goes.
As you no doubt heard this week, drug giant Pfizer, along with the German biotech firm BioNTech, announced late Monday that their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in protecting people compared with a placebo. And it suggested the first doses of the vaccine could be available as early as next month, pending FDA approval.
Pfizer’s news sent stocks exploding higher. The Dow soared over 1,500 points higher in early trading on Tuesday, a new record advance for one day. It hit new record highs, above 30,000 at one point. The media tried to tell us it was because Biden won, the Senate will probably remain in GOP control, and the market likes divided government and gridlock.
That may be part of the reason the markets hit new record highs, but I believe the real reason is the fact we could have a COVID-19 vaccine – one which is far more effective than anyone expected (90%) – as early as next month.
Don’t get me wrong – it will still be months before the vaccine is widely available. But the fact that Pfizer’s vaccine may be ready for widespread production as early as next month is truly groundbreaking news for which we all should be truly excited.
As a political aside, I thought it was very interesting that Pfizer elected to reveal its big COVID-19 news AFTER the election. We’ll never know, of course, exactly when Pfizer knew its COVID vaccine was 90% effective, but I think it’s safe to say they didn’t want to announce the news before the election. Just my opinion.
My point today is now we know with a reasonable level of confidence that Pfizer’s (and maybe others’) COVID vaccine will be widely available early next year. This is tremendous news!
What I thought we would do today is look into how the vaccine actually works. I stumbled onto a great graphic this week which illustrates the process in a way most anyone can understand. Let’s take a look at how the COVID-19 vaccine is developed and used in patients.
Now, let me run through some of the most common questions about the COVID-19 vaccine.
When Will a Vaccine Become Available?
Pfizer believes it will be able to supply 30-40 million doses by the end of this year, enough for 15 to 20 million people to receive the two-shot vaccination. They estimate that 1.3 billion doses could be manufactured each year.
Besides Pfizer, several other pharmaceutical companies are currently in late-stage trials. Depending on the safety and effectiveness of these other vaccines, we are likely to see greater supplies available later this year and into 2021.
Who Will Get the Vaccine First?
Exactly who will be immunized first has not been made public, but those with higher risk of infection by the virus – healthcare workers, older adults and people with risk factors – are expected to receive it first.
What Still Needs to be Done?
Two months of safety data will be submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as early as next week. The FDA will then consult with an outside advisory committee of experts to review the data on the vaccine’s safety, effectiveness and the company’s ability to manufacture millions of doses.
If there are no unforeseen delays, the vaccine could be approved for use by certain high-risk populations by year-end.
Would a Vaccine Protect Everyone?
Not everyone responds the same to immunization. Pfizer’s clinical trial includes people over age 65, which suggests that older people, who are at greater risk of infection, will demonstrate strong protection from the vaccine. Trials are now underway to test the vaccine on children.
As vaccinations are administered to the general population, the FDA and Centers for Disease Control will be monitoring for continued effectiveness and to make sure there is no evidence of very rare safety issues.
It is thought that 60-70% of the global population needs to be immune to the virus (known as “herd immunity”) in order to stop it from spreading easily. In other words, billions of people need immunity, even if the vaccine works perfectly.
In closing, I hope this COVID-19 discussion and illustration have been helpful.