This just in: Mitt Romney had a great week last week! That is a real change of pace considering he had a rough month or so prior to that. Of course, if Romney had a great week that means that President Obama had a bad one. We’ll take a look at the few state polls out over the last week. What we’re really waiting for are new swing state polls showing how much of a bounce, if any, Romney got with the Paul Ryan pick.
The only interesting polls to surface since last week are in MI, WI, OH and FL. Obama is maintaining his lead in MI, up five points in the latest poll. However, a new FOX poll in MI after the Ryan selection has Romney ahead 48-44 for the first time. In the same poll, 36% of MI voters said the Ryan selection made them more likely to vote for Romney, while only 28% said less likely. Spencer and I still think it will be tough for Romney to snag MI, but we’re not ready to paint it blue just yet.
The latest poll out of WI shows Obama still in the lead there. However, with the addition of Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket, WI (his home state) will remain in play and merits our close attention. In FL, Romney maintains a narrow two-point lead according to the latest poll of the state. Remember that FL is a must-win for Romney. Romney has also pulled to a two-point lead in OH.
At this point, I would like to turn to some serious headwinds developing for Team Obama that could be difficult for the president to overcome. We all know that the election will be decided by a handful of swing states, in particular CO, FL, NC, OH, VA, WI and possibly MI. The candidates are campaigning and spending furiously in these states. Obama ran the table in these states in 2008, but as this GALLUP poll shows, he may have a very hard time repeating that electoral sweep this time around.
The poll asked swing state voters if they and their families were better off now than in 2008. A staggering 56% responded that they are no better off. That is very bad news for the president! Only 40% said they were better off.
When asked if Obama has done the best he could with the economy he inherited, 52% said no versus 46% who said yes. Of the 52% that answered no, 71% of them also said that they are no better off than they were four years ago. Of the 46% that think Obama has done the best he could, 28% said they are no better off than four years ago. Folks, this is very bad for the Obama campaign, make no mistake.
The latest Gallup “Approval/Disapproval” polls continue to confirm that President Obama has some serious challenges.
While the president gets high marks for terrorism and decent marks for education and foreign affairs, he’s in real trouble when it comes to immigration, creating jobs, the economy and the budget deficit. We would argue that these four latter issues are much more on the voters’ minds than the first three issues above. Remember, most Americans vote with their pocketbooks.
Finally, we continue to believe that Obama’s July 13 gaffe – “If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen” – has deeply wounded the Obama campaign. Clearly it has given the GOP an over-arching theme – “Yes, You Did Build That!”
With all those problems for Obama noted, Team Romney need not get too excited. When asked if they would be better off if Romney or Obama won the election, both candidates drew mediocre marks. Some 49% said they would not be better off if Romney wins, and 52% said the same of the president. Clearly Romney has not closed the sale in several key swing states, but he’s gaining some traction where Obama was holding clear but small leads.
The RealClearPolitics national average of all polls has the race at Obama 47.3% to Romney 44.8%, or a 2.5% edge for the president. These are “registered voters.” The GALLUP seven-day rolling average is holding at Romney 47% to Obama 45%. These are “likely voters.” To be fair, President Obama still leads Romney narrowly in several national polls of “registered voters.”
Gallup’s daily job approval poll stands at 46% approve, 49% disapprove. Obama’s negative ratings have been ticking up all summer, primarily due to the extremely negative campaign he is running this time around.
Team Obama is clearly worried, perhaps for the first time. Plus, it is widely reported that there is dissension and back-biting among several top Obama advisors.
That’s all for now. Brace yourselves, the party conventions are next!
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