Political observers on both sides of the aisle definitely agreed that President Obama’s jobs speech on September 8 was absolutely critical for his re-election chances. It had to be something BIG. The aggressive pre-speech hype by the Obama administration led everyone to believe it would indeed be big. And it was!
It was yet another huge “stimulus” package estimated at $447 billion, which he said over a dozen times was “fully paid for.” In the speech the president said he would direct the so-called “Super Committee” to find additional spending cuts in the budget to pay for his huge new jobs bill, in addition to the $1.5 trillion they already have to find. But President Obama changed his mind over the weekend on how to pay for his jobs plan.
On the following Monday (Sept. 12), he announced that the $447 billion would be largely paid for by raising various taxes on those individuals making over $200,000 and families making over $250,000 a year. Specifically, he would greatly reduce itemized tax deductions – including mortgage interest, charitable donations, etc. (not to mention the expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2012) for these high income earners.
He also proposed a hike in the corporate tax rate, a big tax increase for hedge fund managers and a significant reduction of deductions for jet aircraft owners. Never mind that he wants to spend the nearly half a trillion now and pay for it over a decade by taxing the “rich.”
When the President of the United States summons a joint session of Congress in prime time and delivers a nationally televised speech on the key issue facing the nation, and speaks well and forcefully, you would expect him to get a nice bounce in the polls. Most politicos expected a bounce of 4-5 to 8-10 points. It didn’t happen, or at least not yet.
A Bloomberg poll taken just after the speech found that 51% opposed President Obama’s new jobs plan, while only 40% believed it would work. Compounding Obama’s challenge is that 56% of independents, whom the president won in 2008 and will need to win in 2012, were doubtful it would work, at least initially.
In addition to Bloomberg, there were three other major polls that were released measuring Obama’s approval after his jobs speech last week – Gallup, Rasmussen and CNN/Opinion Research. In their polls prior to the speech these three showed an average Obama job approval of 42.3%. After the speech, his approval averaged 43.6%, a minimal gain that is well within the margin of error. So for practical purposes, no bounce in his approval rating.
The same Bloomberg poll noted above also found that Obama’s overall approval rating had fallen to 45%, the lowest of his presidency (in the Bloomberg polls). That rating was driven down in part by a majority of independents, 53%, who disapprove of his performance.
On his handling of the economy, specifically, the Bloomberg poll found that 62% disapprove while only 33% approve. Among independents, 66% disapprove of his handling of the economy while only 29% approve. This is very bad for Obama!
But is the Trend Shifting?
While the initial polls just after the speech showed that most people opposed Obama’s huge jobs plan, one new poll on Wednesday of this week suggests that people may be warming up to the jobs plan despite the fact that it is yet another big stimulus. A new Gallup poll released on September 14 found the following:
There are two ways to look at this poll. Certainly, 45% in favor is a big improvement since right after the speech (if it is confirmed by other polls). On the other hand, 32% are opposed and 23% don’t know – 55% in total. Of course, it’s impossible to tell how the “don’t knows” will break, but here’s what we do know:
If this poll is accurate, it represents a huge shift in public opinion in a very short time. It will be next week before we know if any other polls show a similarly large shift. Some political observers speculate that many Americans opposed the jobs plan initially because the president didn’t tell us how he was going to pay for it in the speech. But when he announced on the following Monday that he would pay for it by taxing the “rich,” perhaps a lot of people said, “Well, OK then, and keep up that payroll tax deduction.”
It remains to be seen if this new Gallup poll holds up, or if it is a one-off outlier. I wouldn’t bet one way or the other. If it is confirmed in polls over the weekend, it will be a testament to the public’s desire to raise taxes on the rich – the rich being those that make $200,000/$250,000 a year – as Obama has wanted all along…
It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Stay tuned!
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