Many economists continue to forecast a recession in the second half of this year, due primarily to the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy and higher interest rates. But that recession has not arrived yet, as government fiscal policy is still stimulative; real interest rates are not yet restrictive (the nominal yield on Treasury bills remains… Continue Reading
Federal Tax Revenues Are Plunging In Biden Economy – Why?
President Joe Biden likes to brag about the masterful job he’s doing managing the nation’s economy. Earlier this month, Mr. Biden referred to “our historic economic progress” under his administration. “Historic?” Not even close. Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of only 1.3% in the 1Q of this year, down by half from… Continue Reading
2023 A Great Year For Stocks So Far… But
We’re not even halfway through the year yet, but 2023 has been a great year for the stock market. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 15% for the year. Some market pundits are predicting 2023 will be one of the best years ever for the stock market. But what if I told you that… Continue Reading
Fed Left Interest Rates Unchanged, No Surprise
Bowing to widespread public pressure, the Federal Reserve voted to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting concluded yesterday. The decision to “pause” hiking rates after 10 consecutive increases came as a surprise to no one, but the Fed made it clear that at least a couple more rate hikes will likely be… Continue Reading
U.S. Factories Booming, But Worker Shortage Persists
Before we get into today’s main discussion, let’s take a quick look at the latest jobs report for May. The report showed the economy added 339,000 new jobs as compared to 190,000 expected. The official unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in April. It was a very strong report and does not suggest an economy… Continue Reading