Romney and Obama Race in Dead-Heat

Between now and November 6, my goal with these “Wednesday Specials” is to advise you as to where to focus your attention as you analyze the presidential race. While there will be elections in all 50 states and DC, the outcome of the race will be decided by just a handful of key states. Between myself and Spencer Wright (who sits in the office next to me), we hope to correctly advise you on which states to watch.

Historically, the incumbent president should be enjoying a comfortable lead (at least 5-7 points) in the national polls at this time of the year. Even Jimmy Carter was up double digits over Ronald Reagan at this point in 1980. Yet for whatever reasons you might mention, President Obama is statistically tied with Mitt Romney at this point. Take a look at the latest polls and trends. Rasmussen polls show Romney gaining ground consistently of late.

The RealClearPolitics.com average has Obama at 45.7 versus Romney at 45.0, a statistical dead-heat. Of more concern to Team Obama, the trend is running decidedly against them. Here is the chart that is keeping Obama’s advisors up at night.

Making matters worse, a Rasmussen poll released last Thursday found that 50% of Likely Voters trust Romney on the economy versus only 42% that trust Obama. I think we can all agree that the economy will be the #1 issue in this presidential election.

Now, let’s quickly get to the handful of “battleground states” that will decide this election. For analysis purposes, we are going to assume that most of the states which normally vote Democrat and normally vote Republican will do so again this time, with the possible exceptions of OH, FL, WI, VA, IA, NM, CO and NV. President Obama won all of these states in 2008.

Ohio (18 Electoral Votes) is a must win for Romney. A Republican has never been elected president without it. Looking at the past 10 election cycles, Ohio has voted for the Republican six times. Currently Obama holds a 2-3 point edge in Ohio, well within the margin of error. Florida (29 EV) is the largest electoral battleground state by far. Again, Romney must have Florida in his column come election night. Florida has gone for the Republican seven times in the last 10 cycles. Currently Romney is ahead in Florida by four points in recent polls, within the margin of error.

Wisconsin (10 EV) is a traditional Democrat territory, having voted Democrat seven of the last 10 cycles. However, in recent cycles 2000 and 2004, Bush came within 0.2% and 0.4% of winning the state. Romney currently leads by three points in the latest poll. If Romney can win Wisconsin, he gains a little breathing room that can help offset a possible loss of a traditional GOP stronghold.

Speaking of traditional GOP strongholds drifting toward Obama, let’s look at Virginia (13 EV), having voted Republican nine times in the last 10 cycles. Obama leads in the state by three points. If President Obama can carry Virginia again, it will be a heavy blow to Romney that will be hard to overcome.

Moving West, Iowa (6 EV) is a true swing state having voted for the Democrat five times and the Republican five times over the last 10 cycles. Romney is currently ahead in the state by a razor thin one point. New Mexico (4 EV) has voted for the Republican six of the last 10 cycles but has shifted toward the Democrats in recent years. Obama is currently well ahead in NM. Colorado (9 EV) is traditional Republican territory having voted eight of the last 10 cycles for the GOP. Current polls suggest the candidates are dead even here. Nevada (6 EV) has voted for the Republican seven of the last 10 cycles. Obama currently holds a lead here but within recent polls margin of error.

Romney must win both OH and FL and carry either WI or VA. Out West he needs to win CO. Assuming the standard alignments, if Romney does that, he will win either 272 to 266 or 275 to 263. If Obama wins WI, then Romney has to win VA to win.

You can bet that the candidates will spend the balance of their vast war chests and their time in these states. I feel sorry for the residents of these eight states. They will be bombarded with political ads and will feel the brunt of campaign 2012 – especially those of you in OH, WI and VA.

I hope this analysis helps you to know where to focus your attention. We will update the state-by-state numbers as we move closer to the most important presidential election in a long time.

Feel free to forward this to as many people as you wish. Your comments and suggestions are always appreciated.