You may think that today’s blog post is another political article, but really it’s more about the pessimistic mood of the country, which has to be troubling no matter which political party you may affiliate with, if any.
A Rasmussen poll this week casts new light on just how discouraged most Americans are on the economy. Making matters worse, most voters don’t seem to think it makes much difference who wins the election when it comes to turning this slow-growth economy around. Here are some highlights (or lowlights) from the Rasmussen poll released on Tuesday:
If President Obama is re-elected –
32% of “likely voters” believe the economy will get better,
but 37% believe the economy will get worse.
If Governor Romney is elected –
36% of “likely voters” believe the economy will get better,
but 35% believe the economy will get worse.
This new poll is problematic on several levels. First, it is troubling how few likely voters believe that the economy will improve, regardless of who wins the election. Second, well over one-third of likely voters believe the economy will get worse, regardless of who wins the election. It’s like they are hopeless.
This poll hasn’t gotten much attention, if any, in the media – it’s such a downer. The Romney camp could point out that more likely voters believe the economy will get better if he is elected, and fewer feel it will get worse if he wins. But don’t expect to hear that – this is just discouraging news all the way around.
Various polls confirm that “the economy” is the #1 concern on the minds of voters. Yet if you look at the numbers above, you could roughly summarize that:
- Apprx. one-third of voters think the economy will get better;
- Apprx. one-third of voters think the economy will get worse; and
- Apprx. one-third of voters think the economy will stay the same.
Put differently, roughly two-thirds of voters think the economy will stay the same (bad) or get worse. That’s a sad commentary to me! It suggests that two-thirds of voters believe that the economy is so screwed up that no one can fix it.
Looked at another way, if two-thirds believe the economy will get worse or stay the same (which is pretty bad), and that neither candidate can fix it, then why is the economy the #1 issue on voters’ minds? Most seem to have given up on it.
This leads us to wonder what is the #2 concern among voters. Polls citing top voter concerns vary somewhat, but there is one concern that almost always ranks near the top, and that is Health Care. This is especially true since the Supreme Court upheld Obamacare on June 28.
Here are the top voter concerns according to the latest Rasmussen survey:
As you can see, 67% of likely voters said that health care is “Very Important” as to how they will vote in November. The survey above was taken on June 27-28 and July 1-2, just before and after the Supreme Court ruled on Obamacare. It will be very interesting to see how this turns out the next time Rasmussen takes this survey, after people have had more time to think about the Supreme Court’s decision on Obamacare.
My guess is that health care will be even more important to voters come November because a majority of Americans want Congress to repeal Obamacare, even after the Supremes ruled it constitutional. But as I wrote in my E-Letter on Tuesday of last week, repealing Obamacare is a very tall order and may be practically impossible.
Now here’s a real shocker: A new Rasmussen nationwide survey conducted on July 5-6 found that 80% of respondents believe that if Romney wins the election and the Republicans take over control of Congress, Obamacare will “likely” or “very likely” be repealed. Actually, 52% of all respondents believe it is “very likely.” Unfortunately, most Americans who want Obamacare repealed have no idea just how hard that will be to accomplish.
Now consider this. If most voters have given up on the economy (ie – neither candidate can fix it), is it possible then that the election could morph into a referendum on Obamacare? That would not be good for the president! But then that may just be wishful thinking on my part.
It remains to be seen if Governor Romney can beat President Obama. As I reported in my Blog on Wednesday, Obama is holding up better in the polls now than he was just a month ago, so a Romney win is definitely not a sure thing. And based on the latest polls, the Republicans are not expected to regain a majority in the Senate.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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