Presidents Below 50% Approval Lose 37 House Seats

When I started this Blog in 2011 (has it really been that long?), I saw it as a venue to write about whatever I found most interesting – regardless of the subject matter. Topics could be about the economy, the markets, investments, the Fed, politics or whatever.

Today’s topic lands on the political side and it should be very interesting to all readers, regardless of your political persuasion. It certainly got my attention. Let me set it up.

We all have seen political polls and news stories regarding a “wave election” in the upcoming mid-term elections.

Most commentators in the mainstream media are predicting a “blue wave” where the Democrats retake majority control of the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. If this happens, many predict that President Trump will be impeached, but that’s another story for another time.

Some others still predict a “red wave” election where Republicans add to their power in the House and the Senate in November.

The problem with both of these predictions is that it all depends on voter turnout. The blue wave prediction assumes that Democrats, and to a lesser extent Independents, are so disgusted with President Trump that they will turn out in record numbers to vote against Republicans in the mid-term elections – even though Trump is not on the ballot.

The fact is, however, that no one can accurately predict voter turnout by either party in advance. You just never know. For that reason, I have pretty much downplayed these recent polls and stories predicting a blue wave or a red wave in November.

And one last factoid. The Democrats only need to pick up 23 net seats to retake majority control of the House of Representatives. The Dems need to pick up only a net two seats to retake the Senate. Of course, it will be much harder to take the Senate since the Dems have 26 seats to defend in November while Republicans only have 9 seats to defend.

That’s the set-up. Here’s the story.

Presidents Below 50% Approval Lose Average 37 House Seats

I ran across a statistic last week that stands out above all the polls and surveys. It is not based on polls or surveys – it is based on facts. It comes from none other than GALLUP. Here it is:

Presidents with an approval rating below 50% lose an average of 37 seats
in the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections. President Trump’s
approval rating is in the low 40s. Thus, he could lose seats in the Senate too.

By comparison, presidents with an approval rating above 50% have lost only 14 House seats in the mid-term elections since GALLUP has been keeping records. Let that sink in.

 US House Net Seat Gain or Loss For President by Presidential Approval Rating

Again, I didn’t take the media predictions that the Dems would retake control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, seriously earlier this year. But this latest revelation from GALLUP has me rethinking everything about the November mid-terms. The Dems could indeed retake control of the House based on this statistic alone.

With President Trump’s approval rating well below 50%, the Dems could very well retake control of the House. Again, they need only 23 additional seats to make this happen, well below the average of 37 seats when the president’s approval rating was below 50%.

I doubt that many of you have seen this statistic from GALLUP. That’s why I wanted to bring it to your attention today. It is very concerning if you are a conservative, and likewise very encouraging if you are a progressive.

Only two presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, saw their party gain seats in a mid-term election. Both Clinton (66%) and Bush (63%) had high approval ratings just before their first mid-term elections. Still, that popularity provided only enough boost to help their party pick up a handful of seats – five for Clinton in 1998 and six for Bush in 2002.

So, a sub-50% approval is a really big deal!

While I have downplayed media predictions of a Democrat wave (or a Republican wave) in November, the statistic above that presidential candidates with approval ratings below 50% lose an average of 37 House seats in the mid-term election has really grabbed my attention.

Just thought you should know. I’ll leave it there for today.

Have a great first of fall weekend!