If you believe Trump’s tariffs hurt farmers, and they do, closing the Mexico border would have a serious negative impact on the US economy. And I’m not just talking about border states like Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California, which would be devastated; the economy all across the country would suffer.
While I’ve been very upbeat on the US economy for quite a while now, a border shutdown would have the real potential to throw the economy into a new recession. As the number of illegal immigrants at our borders has mushroomed this year, President Trump is threatening to close all, or substantial parts, of the US/Mexico border.
In 2018 there was $346 billion in goods imported from and $265 billion of goods exported to Mexico. On an average day, this is about $950 million in imports and $725 million in exports for a total of $1.675 billion daily on average. This is huge and surely enough to spark a recession if halted – not to mention the inevitable shortages of fruits, vegetables, auto parts, cars, etc., etc.
According to the Department of Agriculture, we import 50% of our vegetables from Mexico, 40% of our fruit (80% of our avocados) and 80% of wiring harnesses for US-made cars among hundreds of other auto parts we import from Mexico.
The negative economic impact of closing the border would be huge. Longstanding supply chains would be disrupted. Many companies would have to air ship versus using trucks to deliver critical parts and supplies for end products. Think of manufacturing lines shut down due to just-in-time deliveries not making it, employees being laid off as production slows or grinds to a halt and stores not having the goods to sell that they get via the border.
The biggest question is, would President Trump actually do it, given the economic repercussions? I think the answer is NO, but then you just never know with Trump. I don’t believe he would risk a recession in 2020, which could sink his re-election chances, just to punish Mexico. My bet: he won’t do it.
Finally, there is word this week that Mexico has reportedly started stopping some of the migrants from Central America at its southern border. If true, that is a good thing. We’ll have to see if it works. Let’s move on to another important issue.
Democrats Want to Abolish the Electoral College
The Electoral College has been the focus of renewed Democratic criticism in the wake of President Trump’s 2016 win. While he handily defeated Hillary Clinton in the Electoral vote, he lost the popular vote by 2.9 million ballots. To this day, there are still Democrats who will not accept that Donald Trump was duly elected President of the United States.
A group of Democratic Senators on Tuesday introduced a measure to abolish the Electoral College. A similar bill was introduced in the House of Representatives recently. Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois, Dianne Feinstein of California and Brian Schatz of Hawaii co-sponsored the resolution. Also arguing to abolish the Electoral College are presidential hopefuls Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
Twice in the past five presidential elections, a Republican has won the presidency despite losing the popular vote. While the controversial 2000 Bush v Gore election was still being decided, Gallup found that 61% of Americans – including 73% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans – preferred amending the Constitution to elect the popular vote winner. Only 35% of respondents preferred the Electoral College system.
The partisan gap widened even further after the 2016 election. In March of last year, Pew Research found that 75% of Democrats want to ditch the Electoral College versus only 32% of Republicans. A few weeks after President Trump won the presidency while losing the popular vote, Gallup found that 49% of Americans preferred changing to a popular vote system, compared to 47% who wanted to keep the Electoral College.
The idea of abolishing the Electoral College is not new, but here is something you may not know. Some 13 states and Washington, DC have found a way around the Electoral College through a mechanism known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). By enacting the NPVIC, these states guarantee that all of their Electors’ votes will go to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes.
These 13 states (CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA) and DC have a total of 184 Electoral votes. Several other states are said to be considering switching to the NPVIC. The main concern is that if enough states enact NPVIC, their votes could eventually outnumber the Electoral College, precipitating a potential constitutional crisis.
Fortunately, neither of the two bills to abolish the Electoral College have even a slight chance to pass in the House or Senate. Eliminating the Electoral College would require a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress (or a constitutional convention), and three-fourths of the states would then have to ratify it.
As left-leaning FiveThirtyEight put it, a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College “will pass when pigs can fly.”
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