Midterm Election Takeaways – Divided Government

I debated with myself and my staff as to whether I should write anything about the midterm election today, since the results were generally in-line with projections near the end. There were certain developments, however, that should make for some interesting conversation for Democrats and raise real concerns for Republicans. That’s what we’ll talk about today, in no particular order.

As you know, the Democrats picked up 27 seats in the House to win a slim majority, not the 40-50 seats expected a few months ago – no “Blue Wave.” The GOP basically ran the table in the Senate, picking up 3-4 seats depending on a recount in Florida and McSally winning in Arizona.

Ted Cruz almost lost Texas which hasn’t elected a Democrat to high office in decades. Cruz won by 50.9% to Beto O’Rourke’s 48.3%. Yet what came as a shocker was the fact that Cruz lost Harris County, his home county (Houston). No one I know expected this.

And that brings me to the most surprising thing about this election if you are a Republican. Beto O’Rouke won all of the major metropolitan counties in Texas: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant (Ft. Worth), Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio). With the exception of liberal Travis County (where I live), most pollsters expected Cruz to win these other large counties. Didn’t happen.

This is truly alarming for Texas Republicans! Moreover, it almost certainly means that Beto is not going away. He raised over $70 million in campaign cash, a new record for a Senate race, and reportedly didn’t spend nearly all of it. That, of course, raises the question: Where does Beto go next?

Some have suggested that Beto will run for governor of Texas, but I don’t think he wants to wait four years for Governor Gregg Abbott, who won re-election by almost 15 points. Might he run against Texas Senator John Cornyn in 2020? Maybe… we’ll see. Cornyn, unlike Cruz, is well-liked and generally respected in Texas, so he could be an even stronger opponent than Cruz who won anyway.

Numerous media commentators suggested O’Rourke may have his sights set on the White House in 2020. Maybe, but the math doesn’t add up: If you can’t win a Senate seat in your own state against an unpopular incumbent, why do you think you have a shot at the White House? I don’t think so. Plus, the field of Democrats running for president in 2020 is expected to be very crowded, likely including former vice president Joe Biden.

Next, there’s the so-called “Kavanaugh Effect.” As I predicted last month, the disgrace that was the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings energized Republicans to come out in droves to vote against Democrat candidates. Four of five Democratic candidates who voted against Justice Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation lost their election bids: Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Claire McCaskill (MO), Joe Donnelly (IN) and presumably Bill Nelson (FL). The only Democratic Senator who voted for Kavanaugh, Joe Manchin (WV), ended up winning Tuesday night.

On another note, NBC News reported that 16% of voters in the elections were first-time midterm voters, and they broke heavily for Democrats. NBC reported that 61% voted for Democrats, while only 36% voted for Republicans. That’s another troubling trend for the GOP.

Here’s a real stunner: In the Florida election there was a down-ballot referendum giving most convicted felons who have served their sentences the right to vote. Wow! The only exceptions are those convicted of murder or felony sexual offenses. Previously, whoever is the sitting governor decided whether felons could vote, and current Governor Rick Scott doesn’t allow it. Yet the people have spoken. Even so, I’ll bet we haven’t heard the last of this.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see if Nancy Pelosi becomes the new Speaker of the House. Word is that plenty of Democrats don’t want her back in. Ironically, President Trump said he thinks she deserves to be the next Speaker.

Another interesting move to watch is whether or not Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) is elevated to head the powerful House Financial Services Committee. She is currently the ranking Democrat on that committee, so she is in-line to become the chairwoman in January.

Yet Rep. Waters is a very controversial, ultra-liberal and an outspoken critic of the big banks. Last year, she and her fellow Democrats on the committee issued a report calling for Wells Fargo to be shut down by the government.

Ms. Waters is a frequent and outspoken critic of President Trump. Earlier this year, she called the president a “con man.” Mr. Trump responded by calling her “crazy” and an “extraordinarily low IQ person.” This could get wild!

In closing, I tried to point out some things about Tuesday’s midterm elections that you might not have heard about. I’m just glad the elections are over!