Well here we are again, one week later, and the presidential race is still all over the place. Today’s RealClearPolitics.com poll average puts the race at 48.1 to 45.4, a 2.7 point advantage for President Obama. However, Rasmussen’s latest poll taken this week has it at 46 to 47 in favor of Governor Romney.
You may recall from last week’s blog posting that Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in the 2008 election. Also, Rasmussen surveys “likely voters” not “registered voters.” Gallup, on the other hand, surveys registered voters, and its survey taken over the last week has the race at 47-46 in favor of Obama.
The bottom line is that while Romney has had a bad week, and Obama did get a convention bounce, Romney is still very much in this race – despite what the media would have you believe. All of the polls cited above are within the margin of error. This despite the reported $150 million Team Obama spent during the summer viciously attacking Romney personally.
This week Spencer and I took a look at the historic impact of the presidential debates on the eventual election outcomes. The debates schedule and topics are as follows:
October 3 – Domestic Policy
October 22 – Foreign Policy
There is also the VP debate on October 11. Very soon now, both camps will begin playing the “expectations” game, trying to lower the public’s expectations for their candidate’s debate performance, and at the same time set the expectations at unreasonably high levels for their opponent’s performance.
So this begs the question, can debate performance change the dynamics of an election? Will the political fortunes of Obama and Romney rise or fall with outstanding or disappointing debate showings? As long-time political junkies, Spencer and I would have said yes to both questions. Well you may be surprised that Gallup says rarely.
In a fascinating 2008 study Gallup determined that from 1960 (the first televised debate) to 2004, the debates only had an impact on the 1960, 1980 and 2000 elections. Take a look at this chart that shows the standing of the candidates before the first debate and after the last debate.
You might be looking at the years 1976 (Carter) and 1992 (Clinton) where the candidates’ standing went down significantly. However, in both of those years, the candidate went on to win the election even if they didn’t necessarily do well in the debates.
In 2008, Obama was considered to have won all three debates. Prior to the start of the debates Obama held an edge over McCain, and the debates served to solidify his lead. Will the debates play a major part in 2012? With the electorate so emotionally polarized this time around, I think the debates could very well make a difference for undecided voters.
Turning toward the state polls, OH is either close or it isn’t. There are conflicting polls that show it a one or two point race and some that favor Obama by five or more. We should see new polls from OH in the next few days, and that will give us a better idea where the Buckeye State stands. We need to keep a close eye on this ultimate battleground state that Romney must win.
Romney continues to fare very well in NC where the latest poll has him up by six. In the latest CO poll (Rasmussen), Romney has pulled ahead by +2 (45-47). Romney also continues to hold a slight edge in FL (47-48). In WI, Rasmussen has Romney ahead by +2, while the RealClearPolitics average has Obama up by +2.7. lt remains to be seen if Paul Ryan can deliver his home state.
Then there is VA which can’t decide which way it wants to go. After being a reliable Republican state for many years, the state went for Obama in 2008. Recent VA polls have been all over the place. A biased Washington Post poll showed Obama at +8, whereas another poll the week before showed Romney at +5. Today’s RealClearPolitics average has Obama at +3.0. We won’t know how VA will go until late on Election Night.
Finally, a new Rasmussen poll out today has Romney taking the lead in New Hampshire (48 to 45). That’s a surprise. The RCP average still has Obama up 2.3.
Well that’s it for this week. Tune in to the debates, things are just starting to get interesting!
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