Obama v. Romney: How to Predict the Winner

Here we are one week closer to the election and things are really heating up. This week I want to take a look at some interesting historical stats about party conventions, courtesy of the excellent GALLUP organization, and place them into context with the current election. There is also some very interesting new polling data for this installment, so let’s dive in.

This story from GALLUP examines all of the presidential elections since 1952. The study focuses on which presidential candidate was leading in its poll a week prior to the convention, and how often that candidate went on to win the general election. And here’s the conclusion: Of the 15 elections since 1952, the candidate leading in the Gallup poll a week prior to the first convention won 13 of those 15 elections. Mitt Romney has narrowly led President Obama in the GALLUP poll for the last three weeks – until today. Obama moved to +1 in today’s poll.

The two instances where the leading candidates went on to lose, 1992 and 2004, were unusual circumstances. In 1992, there was a real three-way race between Clinton, Bush Sr. and Ross Perot. Perot bowed out during the Democrat Convention (though you may remember that he came back as a spoiler), and that resulted in Bill Clinton getting the largest post-convention bounce ever, a stunning 16 points (more on this below).

The 2004 scenario saw John Kerry leading George W. Bush going into the Democrat convention. Kerry actually lost ground after that convention and went on to lose to Bush by three points on Election Day (more on this below).

So what does this mean for 2012? Well, Romney has led Obama by a slim one to two-point margin in the GALLUP daily tracking poll for the last three weeks. The GALLUP study found that even candidates with slim leads a week before the conventions generally won in November.

Given the closeness of this election, the conventions have the potential to create a genuine front-runner. Strong convention speeches and themes are a must. A lackluster performance from either candidate could well be lethal this time around.

Another GALLUP study examines the average post-convention bounces from 1964 to 2008. The average bounce is five points. As noted above, the largest bounce was 16 points for Clinton in 1992; and the smallest was -1 for Kerry in 2004. The Democratic convention in 2004 was a dud, and that, among other things, contributed to Kerry’s loss.

Spencer and I think that the convention bounces could be muted this cycle, maybe only 2-3 points for each candidate, because the race is so tight and so many people have already made their minds up.

Turning to the state polls, there are some interesting developments. Romney has pulled even in VA. This is great news for Team Romney as any Romney victory scenario must include VA. Staying with the must-win states, the most recent polling in OH has Romney even there as well.

The real surprise in this round of polling is MI where Romney is now also even with the president.  Folks I can promise you that the Obama camp was not anticipating a fight for MI and they may not need to in the end. However, this could be one of those signals that things are starting to turn.

But lest we get too excited, the recent polls from FL and CO give Obama an edge in those states, although both are within the margin of error. Don’t forget that FL and CO are vital to any Romney victory scenario, and he needs more traction there.

Finally, I would urge everyone – conservatives and liberals – to see the new movie “2016: Obama’s America.” This movie is not a shameless hit-piece on Obama. It is very factual and well done. FYI, the movie does confirm that Obama was born in a hospital in Hawaii. I learned several things I did not know by seeing this movie.

The movie has become a big hit and is now being distributed in 1,800+ theaters across the country. Without giving anything away, I suspect that more than a few liberals will come away from the movie and conclude: Wait Mr. President, that’s NOT what I signed up for! You really should see it.

That is all for now, thanks for reading and enjoy the spectacle of the national party conventions. Unfortunately, most polls indicate that very few Americans will be watching, even though this is arguably the most important election in years.