Welcome to another Wednesday political edition. This week we want to take a look at the ‘sudden’ narrowing of major polls, where the battleground state polls stand and of course handicap the first of three presidential debates set to air tonight. That’s a lot to cover so let’s get to it.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls continues to favor Obama by 3.9%. The unskewed average favors Romney by 3.7%. So which one is right? Well, if you believe that the polls are skewing in favor of the Democrats via considerable oversampling then the unskewed results are probably closer to reality. It is very interesting that the latest CNN/ORC poll put the race at a slim two point Obama lead (just in time for October) whereas the previous poll taken on 9/10 had Obama up by eight. The latest poll only had an 8% Democrat oversample whereas the 9/10 poll had a whopping 15% democrat oversample.
This ‘sudden’ reduction in the oversample paints a picture that the race is tightening and that Obama needs everyone at the polls come November 6. Simply put, inflated polls are great propaganda pieces but they can depress voter turnout and that is one thing that Obama absolutely cannot afford. Unskewed, the recent CNN/ORC is Romney 50, Obama 46, for what it is worth.
We have thought all along that the polls showing that Obama had pulled ahead by as much as 10-points in the swing states in August would narrow in September. Why? The Dems need to show a narrow margin to assure a good voter turnout among their base.
Turning to the recent battleground state polls, FL remains on the razor’s edge. Currently Obama holds a one point lead. Obama’s leads in CO and IA have narrowed to three and four points respectively. Romney is back on top in NC by four (he likely was never really behind) and Obama holds a four point lead in all important OH. In VA Romney trails by either two or six points depending on the poll.
Tonight we are treated to the first presidential debate of the campaign. I have to admit that I am excited. While the debates don’t have nearly the impact that you would think they are still important. Naturally both Team Obama and Team Romney have been hard at work playing the expectations game. I think you need to forget all of that posturing from both sides. At the end of the day it comes down to this; Obama is a known quantity and Romney isn’t. And it is that simple fact that can give Romney an edge.
Why? Good question. The electorate already knows President Obama, we see him and hear from him literally every day. There is nothing new to learn about him. Romney, on the other hand, has the chance to come across as a realistic alternative to Obama. This is Romney’s best chance to define himself as a credible and presidential choice. And Romney will be able to directly hammer Obama on the economy and ObamaCare. If Romney can tie Obama to the shabby economy once and for all he will have taken a significant step toward victory in November. Both of these men are able debaters. It is unlikely that either will stumble in any significant way.
Tonight begins the final stretch of the campaign. It won’t be long now.
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