Is Stock Market Swoon the Bursting of a Bubble?

With the dramatic plunge in US stocks of 10% (as of Tuesday’s intra-day low), investors are asking whether this is just a normal “correction,” or has the nearly nine-year bull market finally come to an end? No one knows the answer, of course. I argued in my Blog on January 11 and my E-Letter on… Continue Reading

Stock Market Rally Results In More Bond Buying

It is widely expected that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates three times this year. If so, bond yields should go up further in 2018, which should push bond prices lower. In fact, bond yields have already gone up this year, but not as much as most forecasters predicted. The yield on the 10-Year… Continue Reading

How Wealth is Allocated Among Net Worth Levels

In Tuesday’s Forecasts & Trends E-Letter, I focused on how our national savings rate has plunged to only 2.9%, the lowest in a decade. I included a chart showing how the Top 1% of income earners save 38% of their income, whereas the rest of the Top 10% save only 12% of their income. I… Continue Reading

Shutdown Update, Stock Market, Economy & Inflation

At the risk of harping too much on the issue of a government shutdown tomorrow at midnight, here is a brief update on where we stand. On Tuesday night, House Republican leaders decided to go ahead with a funding plan (continuing resolution) to keep the government funded until February 16 – which would mark the… Continue Reading

Another Government Shutdown Looms on January 19

Here we go again. Unless Congress passes a new federal budget or another “continuing resolution” (CR) to fund Uncle Sam, the Treasury Department says the government will effectively shut down at midnight a week from tomorrow. And this time around, all three sides – Republicans, Democrats and President Trump — are threatening to let such… Continue Reading