Today I’m going to present you with three recent polls, one of which is the strongest in 16 years, and two others which seem to contradict it, and then we’ll see if we can make any sense of them. All three of the polls I will cite today are from respected sources, so let’s see where this goes.
Poll #1: On Monday of this week, Gallup released a new poll result showing that 69% of respondents said they will be financially better off a year from now than they are today. That was the highest positive reading in 16 years! Take a look:
The 69% saying they expect to be better off is only two percentage points below the all-time high of 71% recorded in March 1998, at a time when the nation’s economic boom was producing strong growth combined with the lowest inflation and unemployment rates in decades.
In addition, 50% said they are better off today than they were a year ago. That’s the first time since 2007 that at least half of the public has said they are financially better off than a year ago. Ten years ago, as the Great Recession neared its end, the percentage saying their finances had improved from the previous year was at a record low of 23%.
Only 11 times in 109 polls stretching back to 1976 have at least half of those polled said they were in better financial shape than they had been a year prior. Only once in 114 polls going back to 1977 have Americans been more optimistic about their personal finances in the coming year than they are today. This poll taken in late January is super strong!
Poll #2: On Tuesday of this week, Gallup released another poll showing that 56% of respondents believe that the US economy is slowing down or in recession already. Only 41% of respondents said the economy is growing. Take a look:
What a difference! The Gallup table above shows that 56% (39% + 17%) of respondents believe that the US economy is either slowing down or in a recession already, while only 41% believe it is growing. Never mind that the economy is grew by over 3% last year, the best in over a decade (more on this below). That is a stunning difference of opinion between the polls. This poll was also taken in late January. Now let’s move on to the third poll.
Poll #3: Also in the last week of January, a poll by NBCNews/Wall Street Journal showed that 63% of Americans believe the country is headed in the “wrong track” versus only 28% who believe we are headed in the “right direction.”
I couldn’t find a chart of the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, but here’s a similar one from RealClearPolitics.com:
You can clearly see that the percentage of Americans who feel the country is moving in the right direction (black line) is falling, and the percentage who believe we’re moving in the wrong direction (red line) is rising.
Making Sense of These Three Polls, Or Can We?
So how do we explain the vastly different results of the polls above? I’ll tell you what I think. First, the fact that 69% of Americans believe their financial situation will be stronger a year from now (a 16-year high) is outstanding. It is amazing how consumer confidence has exploded in the last few years.
Second, whether you like Donald Trump or not, there is no question that the US economy has blossomed under his low tax/reduced regulation regime. I will be the first to admit that Trump has embarrassed me on numerous occasions, but his policies have clearly turned this economy around.
In the first three quarters of 2018, US gross domestic product rose by 3.27% according to the Commerce Department. Later this month, we’ll get the first estimate of 4Q GDP, and most forecasters believe it will be at least 2.5%. If so, that will mean the economy grew by over 3% last year, the best showing since 2005. Unemployment is the lowest in almost 50 years.
Yet according to Gallup, a majority of Americans (56%) say the economy is slowing down or is already in a recession. And according to NBCNews/Wall Street Journal, 63% think the country is headed in the wrong direction. So how can this be? Here’s how:
The mainstream media hates President Trump – there’s no other way to put it. As a result, they constantly bombard us with negative news on just about everything. And all of it is Trump’s fault. They want us to believe he is not even a legitimate president. Meanwhile, the Democrats are veering toward socialism, and this scares people.
So, while over two-thirds of Americans polled say they are happy with their finances and believe they will be better off a year from now, it’s no wonder that many also believe the economy is weak and the country is headed in the wrong direction. That’s what the media wants us to believe, especially as we head into election season.
You may agree or disagree. I welcome your thoughts.
Hi Gary – Personally i feel the numbers are so manipulated its hard to believe anything until it is in the history books and one can validate it objectively. As for 2018 Q4, Atlanta Feds latest GDPNow estimate Feb 14th for Q4 is 1.5%. Not that they can’t be wrong, just sayin’ thats an example why I just don’t know who/what to believe until the numbers are in the rear view mirror, but by then everyone has moved on and looking forward which minimizes the effect of the true numbers.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
I note that climate change is missing from the analysis. I understand that conservatives have a bias against climate change being a problem as serious as is portrayed in the mass media yet as someone who follows the climate problem at close hand and reads the research published in journals, I am convinced that most scientists do not play games with the facts and are increasingly concerned about what is coming down the pike. Trump has seriously damaged the government’s capability to deal honestly with the climate freight train heading straight at all of us. Enough people understand this to skew some polls despite the Republicans success with th4e economy. I predict Trump will not get back in the White House and his failure to handle accurately the climate change problem will be a leading cause of that.
I believe the polls are wrong because I do not answer then anymore and I expect that most of those that do are democrats! The letters to the editor in my local paper are overwhelmingly liberal.