Another Questionable Jobs Report & the VP Debate

For the second time in a week, a government unemployment report was highly questionable for reasons that were not entirely clear upon its release. Yesterday’s “initial claims” report showed that only 339,000 people applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended October 6.

The pre-report consensus had the number at 370,000-375,000, up from 369,000 the week before. At only 339,000 it was the lowest number in four years!  The DOL said the number of people filing jobless claims last week dropped by a seasonally-adjusted 30,000 – a big monthly decline, and one that left the total number of filings at a multi-year low. But there was a problem, a big problem, the government acknowledged later in the day.

Here’s the problem. While the government didn’t note any unusual factors in the release itself, a Labor Department official did tell news agencies covering the release about a “quirk” which partly accounted for the larger-than-expected drop. As Dow Jones reported:

“A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional
quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.”

The wording of that statement, along with the accompanying headlines, left the impression that one major state didn’t turn in its figures. And what state might that have been? Can you say CALIFORNIA?

Here’s what actually happened. The state did report weekly jobless claims but did not process and report its quarterly claims number (when many people have to reapply for benefits for technical reasons as opposed to being newly laid off). As a result, there wasn’t the expected spike in claims that normally happens at the start of the quarter.

It is unclear why this happened. It is also unclear why the Labor Dept. released the initial claims number and failed to note that it was incomplete. Only when barraged by reporters did a Labor Dept. official admit that CA didn’t submit quarterly numbers, and this was the main reason the number fell to a four-year low.

I’m sorry but this is totally unacceptable! Especially after last Friday’s controversial unemployment report for September. I wrote in detail about that report in my E-Letter on Tuesday. And now we have yet another “mistake.” Yeah, right! Coupled with that report, this will fuel the growing perception that labor market figures in general can’t be trusted.

Who Won the Veep Debate?

There may not have been a clear winner in last night’s VP debate, but there was a clear LOSER – the mean-spirited Vice President. The Wall Street Journal opined today:

“So now we know what Team Obama’s comeback plan was following last week’s defeat in the Presidential debate. Unleash Joe Biden to interrupt, filibuster, snarl, smirk and otherwise show contempt for Paul Ryan.

From the opening bell, Mr. Biden seemed to take to heart the interpretation that President Obama offered this week of his debate performance—that he had been ‘too polite.’ That was not a problem for the Veep, whose marching orders were clearly to steamroll the overmatched moderator Martha Raddatz and dismiss everything Mr. Ryan said with a condescending sneer.”

I was yelling at the TV for Ryan to fight back harder, but in the end he did what he needed to do. At least three mainstream polls just after the debate showed Ryan winning the contest:

NBC –   Ryan 63% / Biden 31%
CNN –   Ryan 48% / Biden 44%
CNBC – Ryan 56% / Biden 36%

Ouch!

What really surprised me the most is, why would the Obama campaign have coached Biden to go on the attack as he did? His sneers, fake laughs and countless interruptions of Ryan made him look like an attack dog. While that behavior may have played well to those on the far left, it almost certainly turned off everyone else.

This puts President Obama in a very tough spot next Tuesday. He can’t come off as snarly as Biden did; yet he can’t afford another performance like he had last week. While I continue to believe the president will bounce back next Tuesday, it won’t be easy, and all Romney has to do is just not screw up.

By the way, the state polling continues to build for Romney. He has pulled to beyond the-margin-of-error leads in NC and FL and he’s now ahead in VA but within the MOE. Romney is surging in several other battleground states. Nationally, Romney has pulled ahead in most of the polls. As I reported on Wednesday, Pew has him up by +4, his largest lead so far.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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